After reading news of India’s first quarter GDP for FY 23, which showed little sign of a base effect despite the fact that in FY 22, we had grown 20.1% in the same quarter, we are likely to think that base effects don’t matter anymore. It would be unwise to think so, however, because this… Continue reading Pay Attention to the Cyclical Economy
On the occasion of India’s 75th Independence Day, I cannot but help repeat what sounds like a cliché. That our country’s source of strength is our diversity and we should do everything to preserve it. Last month, my Owleye column was on how our democracy is fraying and that we are letting petty communal issues… Continue reading India’s Diversity a Source of Strength
Just last year, I had written on the occasion of the start of India’s 75th year of independence, about the long, Sisyphean journey our country had taken to reach where we are today. And about the challenges that remain. I had written it also from the point of view of our own personal experiences as… Continue reading A Democracy Fraying @ 75
President Joe Biden’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) plan for reviving ties with the Asia-Pacific region is a PR ploy to paper over large cracks in the region in the recent past. Right from the pivot to Asia announced by President Obama’s administration in 2009, which led to the creation of the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP)… Continue reading IFAFF Is What It All Amounts To
Since the 1990s, the world economy has been so used to growing along with China, that it’s almost impossible to imagine a world without the Chinese growth engine. That’s because the Chinese economy liberalized in the 1980s and began to trade and do business freely with the rest of the world. They became a member… Continue reading Growth Pangs Sans China
In its second month now, the Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of abating. In fact, it looks like it could drag on for months, if not years. It is already taking a huge toll on Ukrainian’s lives, their country, Europe and the global economy. I am not sure if the Western countries’ economic sanctions on… Continue reading Between Speeches and a Stalemate
Perhaps, not since WWII and then the 1970s, has the world had to deal with the economic effects of a war such as the current one on in Ukraine against Russia. The 8-year war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, and later wars in the Islamic world too had their biggest impact on oil… Continue reading Wartime Priorities for Governments the World Over
Emerging out of the Covid-19 pandemic, global economic recovery is proving to be a tricky business, requiring a delicate balancing act by governments and central banks. This is because most of the world has racked up huge amounts of debt, while trying to stimulate their economies, in addition to the debt they already had. Western… Continue reading World Caught Between Soaring Inflation and Debt
Big government is what The Economist told us to expect at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. It anticipated greater government intervention, of course, as there should be in the case of a health emergency that Covid-19 has turned out to be. But it also anticipated government mandates, use of contact-tracing as a… Continue reading State vs the Market in a Pandemic Economy
The last thing the world needs, as it struggles to control the pandemic and revive economies, is another war or attack on another country’s sovereignty. Yet, for the past couple of months all one has been reading and hearing in the media – particularly international media – is about geopolitical tensions coming to a boil.… Continue reading Geopolitical Tensions, a Red Herring
Peripatetic Perch 