The elusive peace plan on the Iran war that Trump says is only days away is still several days away. 60 days or two months away to be precise, if the two sides sign off on the so-called memorandum of understanding today in Geneva. The whole sordid thing reeks of unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses’ meddling and circus that is global. Disagreement on the 14 points of a peace plan has been going back and forth between the two sides for so long that it is a wonder we have even reached a stage where the two countries’ leaders can meet directly for talks and at least agree on what is probably just a common minimum understanding between them.
The world is so weary of the war that the mere news of this agreement being signed this week was enough to send stock markets soaring and oil prices plummeting. It has already taken a huge economic toll on the global economy, especially countries in Asia and Africa as I had written on my blog, through fuel shortages, soaring oil prices along with those of fertilisers, chemicals, and food.
US and Iran might be meeting directly for talks and to sign this agreement, but the problems haven’t gone away. There is still a long way to go before the final peace plan is agreed upon, and this agreement only paves the way for those talks to proceed while the Strait of Hormuz is reopened and the two sides cease firing on each other for 60 days.
The first problem is Netanyahu and his buy-in into this memorandum of understanding between US and Iran. I am not sure Israel is even a party to these talks and a signatory to this agreement. For Israel’s part it has insisted that it will continue to occupy southern Lebanon and once again struck Beirut just last Sunday, June 14, 2026. It is quite obvious that Israel and Netanyahu are doing their own thing as far as this war on Iran is concerned. They are out of the main war and the negotiations even as they continue to strike Lebanon and then suddenly re-enter the Iran war and the negotiations whenever they please. And once again, America is failing to use its leverage on Israel as forcefully as it should.
The other problem is the way these negotiations are being conducted by America and its intransigence on many of the issues. From news reports that one has been reading and listening to, it seems that America has been combining many issues together, while Iran has always insisted that the Strait of Hormuz reopening and the current war be delinked from Iran’s nuclear programme and be treated separately. To this extent, we could say that Iran has prevailed and perhaps this makes more sense anyway.
America clubbing and mixing up several issues together is hardly surprising, since it attacked Iran without really knowing why it was doing so. It did so along with Israel, and the aims have ranged from backing protestors in Iran, to regime change, to taking over its oil and gas assets a la Venezuela, to denuclearizing Iran. It didn’t even anticipate that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz, as its only potent leverage against the US-Israel combine. Or that it would attack US assets in neighbouring Gulf countries, who have borne the brunt of this war in damage to oil and other infrastructure and to their economies, as a result.
It is only later that the US decided to launch a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz in order to prevent Iran from exporting its oil and gas. Meanwhile, the rhetoric has been of annihilating the Iranian civilization, of choking off its energy and power infrastructure and the like. The threats continued, even as negotiations were on between the two countries with Pakistan mediating.
One of US and Israel’s conditions for peace has been that Iran will stop using its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen for terrorist attacks. However, Israel’s actions in Lebanon to take out the Hezbollah and its infrastructure, even as negotiations are on between US and Iran for a final peace settlement only help to aggravate the problem. For one thing, they vitiate the atmosphere in which talks are taking place and obstruct the path of negotiations. This is why the memorandum of understanding being signed today is critical to the progress of talks that still lie ahead.
But the larger problem I see is that in mixing up issues and at the same time attacking Iran’s proxies, while also taking inordinately long over the talks gives Iran greater leverage in directing the negotiations the way they wish. Attacking Beirut while insisting that Iran gives up its proxies, actually gives Iran the opportunity to use Hezbollah even more than it might have if there were no attacks. Because one of Iran’s conditions for talks to progress is that Lebanon is not attacked and drawn into the Iran war. All this strengthen’s Iran’s hand in the negotiations and talks that lie ahead.
It is clear that both Iran and the US wish to end this conflict soon. However, this doesn’t seem to be Israel’s wish. In fact, Israel is acting in a similar fashion in this war as it did in the conflict in Gaza with Hamas. It is not able to occupy Iran, but by occupying southern Lebanon and forcing its residents to evacuate elsewhere, the modus operandi is the same. This, while US is trying to negotiate a ceasefire and a permanent peace settlement. Netanyahu would like nothing more than to prolong the war, until Israel’s supremacy in the entire Middle-East region is unequivocally established. This is also because he is part of a far-right coalition government in Israel that wishes to put all of the Middle-East under Israel’s thumb, and it is his own self-preservation instincts that decide the fate of the rest of this war in the region.
Israel cannot execute this master-domination plan without America’s help. That’s why Netanyahu involved America in this horrible war in the first place. That said, Netanyahu has become so emboldened in recent years that his bluster at least is that Israel can go it alone if necessary, and nobody wishes to test him on that claim right now, I am sure. With Netanyahu facing parliamentary elections in autumn this year, and with the mid-term elections in the US as well, who can tell how much both leaders will be playing to their domestic audiences in the months ahead.
All eyes now are on the next two months that lie ahead and what they will bring. Another 60 days of the world being kept on edge, of business and economic uncertainty, and of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for a civilian programme. The Strait of Hormuz is reopened, and this brings huge relief to the world but there is no saying when it might be closed again. No right-thinking person can or will assume that the worst is over. The next 60 days are critical and America will have to muster all its courage and diplomatic skills to keep talks on track and rein in Israel all the while.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 