As we go into the summer of 2026, there is no denying the fact that it is going to be a season of impasse, from which there is no easy way out. World leaders have got us into this dreadful situation but cannot find a way to extricate themselves and the world out of the chaotic mess they have created.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict dates back to 2014 – let no one tell you it was 2022 – which makes it an over-decade-long war already. The Israel-Gaza war triggered by the awful terror attack by Hamas on ordinary Israelis, continued with the usual disproportionate use of force by Israelis in retaliation. Even when Israel’s western allies stepped in, they did so, saying that Israel had a right to defend itself. Plying Israel with weapons even as Biden kept advocating restraint to Israel was only going to lead to an escalation in the war, not restraint. That war has now morphed into a larger war aimed at de-nuclearising Iran with Israel and its steadfast ally, the US, bombing Iran and assassinating several of its leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khameini.
That’s three wars already, even though most people treat both the Hamas and the Iran crisis as the Middle-East conflict. We now have a war that Israel and the US began on February 28, in its third month in Iran which has sent a massive energy crisis rippling around the world. What started as an energy crisis has cascaded into a wider economic crisis, and could even spiral into a financial crisis of the government debt kind among others. All thanks to the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz through which most of the world’s oil and gas, chemicals and fertiliser supplies pass on a daily basis.
Against this tense backdrop, we had the leaders of the two most powerful economies in the world meeting. If nothing, the world thought that here was a chance for the two leaders, Trump and Xi Jinping to talk things through, and iron out any differences. Did they, and did the summit achieve anything significant? It seemed from news reports that I read and heard on the news that the US and China were discussing separate issues and might have even been talking at cross purposes. While Trump went with a huge business delegation expecting big deal announcements, China was keen to draw the red line on Taiwan and to reset tariffs. At best, the summit seemed a PR photo-opp.
It seemed that China was playing the more senior role in these discussions, one that we will be seeing them play more often in years to come. China has so far kept out of the West Asia crisis, and at the meeting, drew a red line for the US as far as Taiwan is concerned. I thought that China ought to have exerted more pressure on the US to end the Iran conflict soon, but it appears that it was more concerned with Taiwan and with matters concerning the Chinese domestic economy. However, with their stockpiles of crude oil running down these past many months, and as the biggest buyer of Iranian crude, economic realities are going to bite sooner rather than later and their patience – although greater than Trump’s – may soon run out.
We seem to be surrounded by conflicts that no one quite knows how to end. And there are new ones erupting every other day. Israel suddenly seems out of the Iran war, although they continue to bomb Lebanon. So, is this now America’s war?
Each of these wars and conflicts has serious and scarring economic consequences, especially over the long term. And these damaging effects are coming for all countries, not just the warring parties even if they are the worst-affected being in the firing line. This shows, once again, how interconnected our world still is despite all the rhetoric of decoupling, derisking, deglobalising etc. The Ukraine-Russia conflict affected ordinary Ukrainians, people all over Europe and those in Asia and Africa who depend on food, chemicals and fertilizer supplies from the region. Ditto for the Iran war, that threatens the entire world, especially poorer countries in Asia and Africa.
In such a context, one hopes that no conflict or war over Taiwan will erupt in the near future. There has been a lot of war-mongering over Taiwan as well, what with unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses from India and their obsession with three! I wish world leaders would not start wars they have no idea how to end, putting the entire world economy on the brink of disaster.
In the corporate world, if business leaders didn’t know how to clear the mess they created, it wouldn’t be called leadership and they would be shown the door. If political leaders cannot find an end to conflicts of this kind having started them, perhaps citizens should take it upon themselves to punish them at the next election by voting them out?
Peripatetic Perch 