It is now over a year of Trump 2.0 and the chaos he has unleashed all over the world with his new tariff regime is going to stay for several years, even if it is taking its own sweet time in showing its effects on economic growth. The world is roiling with geopolitical tensions as well as unending wars, as he goes about upending the world economic order. It is threatening to break US’ old alliances including with the UK and Europe, and perhaps even NATO, what with Trump’s takeover plan of Greenland.
Not only did he impose the highest tariffs of 50% on India, including a penalty of 25% for buying Russian oil, his latest offer to reduce tariffs to 25% and even lower to 18%, on his claim that India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil is ridiculous. The Indian government is tight-lipped on whether we have actually agreed to any such condition, but is euphoric over the great trade deal negotiated with the US. This is even more ridiculous, and the Indian government must come clean on what it is that we have agreed to with the US, since it affects our sovereignty and our ability to make our own decisions and shape our own destiny.
If it is indeed true that we have agreed to stop buying Russian oil, we have already given up a large part of our sovereignty. Soon, Trump will demand that India stop buying Russian defence equipment, nuclear technology, etc. and we will have no choice but to toe the line. This will mean giving up all of our sovereignty on our own economic, trade, industrial, defence and foreign policies, even as India climbs the GDP charts. We will soon have no bragging rights over the fastest-growing, or the fourth and third largest economy and the like, because we will be reduced to a satellite state of the US and their stooge.
We must realise that our buying or not buying Russian oil is not going to stop the war in Ukraine. Trump is merely using this argument to sell us American oil and energy, and the war in Ukraine is merely a bogey. This is the mistake Europe too has made in acquiescing to Trump’s tariff reduction to 15% from 25% and is now almost entirely dependent on the US for its energy requirements. A lever Trump can use at a later date to extort more unfair deals on almost anything he wants. While he has forced several countries such as Japan, Korea and even the EU to also invest US$ 500 billion each in the US, he is forcing India to buy US$ 500 billion worth of US goods over the next five years.
In any case, Trump is not able to find a way to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict and will probably compromise Ukraine’s security and sovereignty even if he does so. He seems keener to meet Putin’s demands, than help defend Ukraine. If we stop buying oil, defence, etc from Russia, we would find ourselves in a world where US and China continue business as usual with Russia, while we would lose a longstanding ally. And it would make us look very stupid, indeed. I am actually inclined to think that buying Russian oil is a way to keep Trumpian instincts in check and that with both China and India buying Russian oil, Trump will be forced to find a better and quicker way to end this war.
We are dealing with a bully here, and we must find ways to resist this arbitrary exercising of power over us as a sovereign and independent country. However, this is not the only source of chaos in our country; there is plenty within that also needs looking into. Our state of domestic politics is broken and it is evident from the complete dysfunction that we see in parliament. During the budget session, we are witnessing chaotic, unruly and partisan scenes that are appalling, to say the least. When the time ought to be used to discuss the budget, the various trade agreements and how India will manage the changing world economic order that is being upended. There seems to be complete lack of communication between the government, BJP and the opposition.
The media seems to revel in playing us these scenes from parliament as the only news on TV as it makes for a spectacle, even if an ugly one. The print media seems not to care as much about the goings on in parliament, especially the Times of India, Goa edition. This is the other extreme, and I think both are the work of unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses who are obsessed with politicians and have been scripting the news for decades. In fact, as I have said before, the entire global circus is also of their making, as they try to hijack and capture all of media and policy everywhere in a desperate bid to cover up their unprofessional nonsense.
We have four states and one union territory that go to elections in a few weeks’ time and political temperatures are already rising. Barring one, the rest are opposition-ruled states and one hopes that they will have well-thought campaign strategies to retain office and not allow yet more territory to go to BJP-led governments. Especially when the Chief Minister of the election-bound BJP ruled state has put out a video on social media showing him taking aim – literally – at Muslims in the state. This is worse than hate speech and it is not good for democracy.
Moving to an opposition-free and single party rule across India is not a sign of a healthy democracy, even if we are the world’s largest one. The BJP has always espoused a Congress-mukt Bharat (a Congress-free India), but the way they are either eliminating or co-opting regional and opposition parties ought to be serious cause for concern to every democratically-minded Indian citizen. From splitting the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra to joining hands with the JDU, their money and muscle power knows no end. As I have written before, regional parties provide the greatest resistance to single national-party politics in India and this makes our federal and democratic traditions even more rich and varied. And even though the BJP has been forced to rule as a coalition government at the centre this time, one doesn’t quite know which way many of its regional allies and supporters such as BJD, TDP, etc. will go in the state elections. I think the situation is serious enough for business leaders of India Inc who make large electoral donations to political parties, to also think about what kind of India we are building.
On the international front, we need to assert ourselves more strongly as a country while also engaging more with the rest of the world. I think we have been rather biased and short-sighted in engaging more with western powers than with Asian countries – especially those to our east – and I suspect unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses’ influencing our government in this. We should not give up buying Russian oil or any other product or service from any country on the insistence of a third country, even though the highly weaponized trading system and sanctioning regime leaves few options. In this regard, what else the text of our trade agreement with the US actually says, is critical for our independence and our sovereignty.
In the ancient Greek legend, from Chaos emerged a world of order. Today’s world is chaotic because a certain world order is being dismantled and destroyed before our very eyes. What will replace it, we do not quite know. But resist, reform and repair, we must.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 