While many countries such as India and others in the West as well as Iran have been busy with elections, about some of which I have been writing recently on my blog, one little event in Asia went rather unnoticed. Actually, make that two.
The World Economic Forum which hosts its annual regional summit in China held its Summer Davos at Dalian recently, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation too concluded its summit at Astana in the first week of July 2024. If you’re not paying attention to this part of the world, these are easy to miss.
I have been hearing and reading about the SCO in the news – somewhat less reported these days compared to the 2010s – and I must admit I haven’t cared to delve more deeply into what the SCO stands for and its relevance for India and the rest of the world. I do know that it started out as an organisation comprising China, Russia and the Central Asian republics, to increase cooperation among them in areas such as security, economic development and trade as well as diplomatic relations. It now includes newer areas such as environment conservation and climate change.
India was not a member country, but was invited in the early years as an observer. Since then, our status has gone from being an observer to a member country, as have many other countries who have been included in the SCO. This, even though we chose to opt out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, over differences and tensions regarding Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as well as China’s incursions into Ladakh. India is also a member of the QUAD, a group of four countries led by America to cooperate on security in the Indo-pacific region. I wondered what relevance the SCO offered member countries such as India, over other such alliances.
Well, for starters, it struck me that the SCO cleverly evades the issue of China’s dominance and military activity in the South and East China seas. It has managed to stay a group of countries that all share borders with each other and so together, form a contiguous mass of land, that stretches all the way from China and Russia in the East to Turkey and Belarus – the latest country to join the SCO this year – in the West. This group of Central Asian countries that occupy what we might call Eurasia, corresponds well with China’s Belt and Road Initiative – the Silk Route – and presides over security and potential economic growth from this region. This article from Carnegie Endowment for Peace explains the finer aspects of political and economic life in the Central Asian region and why it is important from a security point of view as well.
Central Asia has the tendency to become a political and security flashpoint, since it is home to people of different ethnicities, political and cultural beliefs and economic development. India in particular would be keen to ensure it remains a place of secure and stable economic and political development since it occupies areas north of Kashmir, with Pakistan and China on either side of us. Besides, with all the past misadventures of Russia and America in Afghanistan over several decades, it is possible that under the SCO, the region will not witness any economic or military domination by any of the major powers which, in this context, are Russia and China.
In fact, in the past couple of decades, Central Asian republics have seen good economic growth, mostly dependent on their natural resources such as oil and gas as well as minerals and metals. In 2023, almost all of them, with the exception of Azerbaijan, recorded annual GDP growth of 5% and above, according to the World Bank. They are critical from another perspective as well. Increasingly, the region is becoming the source of new supplies of oil and gas, delivered by pipeline through the Caspian region to Turkey and beyond. They have become an important source of energy supply to Europe in the context of the war in Ukraine and are likely to develop into an important global hub for energy – albeit fossil fuel – and minerals and metals. According to the Carnegie article, China is the biggest lender in the region, though I also read that the EU is the biggest investor and provider of aid to these countries.
What strikes me as odd is why India and South Asia haven’t yet benefitted from energy supplies – especially cleaner fuels like natural gas – from Central Asia thus far. The article from Carnegie Endowment says that India tends to view Central Asia and the SCO solely through the prism of Pakistan and Afghanistan; it is true that terrorism from across our borders remains our biggest preoccupation. But it would be a pity if we don’t see the potential of cooperating more with Central Asian countries and perhaps even investing in the region, with a view to improving our own energy security over the long term. The region can also be a good market for Indian merchandise exports. At future SCO meetings and summits, the idea of developing oil and gas supply infrastructure southward to India and other South Asian countries must be taken up.
Belarus being admitted to the SCO is obviously at Russia’s invitation or insistence and it still strikes me as the odd one out in the group. Strangely, there was no mention of the latest SCO Summit that took place in Astana, Kazakhstan on the 3rd and 4th of July 2024 on the website of the SCO until even the 9th of July, when I was writing my first draft of this column. Having guessed my thoughts, someone has updated the website with the Astana Declaration now and dated it 9th of July. And the Indian media only reported our Foreign Minister, S Jaishankar’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the SCO where they discussed restarting serious talks to resolve the border issue between our two countries. This is a huge step forward if true, and it is long overdue.
The SCO is not a military bloc or alliance the way NATO is, nor is it a trading bloc such as ASEAN or RCEP. In fact, the website states that ASEAN is a partner to the SCO. This way, the SCO has also managed to avoid raising the hackles of western powers, since it doesn’t undermine or threaten them in any way. Instead, Central Asia has managed to grow economically and develop into a modern trading hub and has remained relatively peaceful and stable, when the alternative possibility could well have been a region thrown into turmoil and conflict by terrorist groups and despotic governments. This proves, as I have always believed, that economic development trumps terrorism because it obviates the need for it and doesn’t allow it to take root. The fact that the SCO has added more countries as observers and partners also augurs well in terms of ensuring that it enjoys wide support when it comes to security, anti-terrorism strategies and economic cooperation.
Being rich in natural resources and maybe even in rare earth minerals, as China is supposed to be, Central Asian republics can also cooperate better under the SCO to conserve the environment and fight climate change. As it is, the region sits on what has long been considered a significant seismic zone, and it could also be vulnerable to melting glaciers. Therefore, SCO member countries also need to work together on climate change mitigation actions on an urgent basis. In this regard, I happened to read about how EU is cooperating with Central Asian republics on clean energy transition and sustainability. Since China too is investing massively in renewables and clean energy, it too can invest and collaborate to improve Central Asia’s capacity in this area.
If the Central Asian project and the SCO prove to be successful, it provides an idea worth replicating in other regions of the world such as Africa and Latin America. Taking economic development to the people and helping backward or poor regions grow and prosper, so that they may never take up arms and become terrorists again, nor become migrants seeking to flee their homes at the first opportunity.
If the West is serious about tackling immigration and terrorism, this is the path forward. Not through wars, arming rebels, and xenophobia. Until then, they can keep expanding NATO, as their military industrial complex depends on it. Let me conclude with greetings to NATO on their 75th anniversary which was recently celebrated in the US with, you guessed right, another NATO Summit.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 