I don’t think anything else has featured in the news in the Indian media landscape these past few weeks other than the firing between India and Pakistan forces. The flaring up of tensions between the two countries was precipitated by the terror attack on 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir on April 22, 2025.
I, for one, remain skeptical about the terrorist attack on Indian tourists – and a Nepali – as tourists are usually not who terrorists target. Some of the early news reporting also looked suspect, with plenty of loose ends. There were three suspects who had been identified, media reports said initially. Later, this aspect seems to have been completely overlooked, and it appears that we still haven’t been able to nab them. Looking at the date of the attack and the numbers killed, I wouldn’t be surprised if this horrific incident is also engineered by the same unprofessional PR agency idiot bosses who have been engaging in the most stupid and desperate attempts to make me someone else. Including mischief with numbers and colours, of course!
Leaving this aside, there is also the question of what took the Indian government so long to respond. There is as yet no explanation of what transpired between April 22, 2025 and May 7, 2025, and why the Indian side didn’t retaliate earlier. Waiting for an auspicious numbered day, is it?!
Anyway, having retaliated and also attracted a barrage of missile fire and drone attacks on a daily basis, we must now be clear as to what we intend to achieve and how soon. This constant exchange of fire cannot go on forever, as it only escalates matters before becoming a full-fledged war between India and Pakistan. From my understanding of the situation, it appeared that our first retaliatory strikes were on the terror camps and other such installations in PoK as well as inside Pakistan, and the strikes were strictly limited to dismantling their terrorist network.
The news reports are nothing but also a barrage of verbal volleys about India having foiled Pakistan’s attacks across the LoC, about our military might and jingoistic nonsense all delivered with feverish and shrill pitch. Very little facts to substantiate what the media is saying, what people of the country need to know such as extent of casualties, loss of lives as well as infrastructure, damage to military and other important installations such as airports, communication and power grids, etc. Both on the Indian side as well as the Pakistan side. Apparently from what one hears in the news, Pakistani media is full of similar claims and counter-claims. As they say, in war, truth is the first casualty. Our media would do well to avoid propaganda and sensationalising the news at a time like this, when citizens need an accurate picture of what is going on.
Coming to the question of avoiding escalation and what the plan of action ought to be, I think there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that we have to put a stop to this violence and firing soon. The danger is that in the escalation, we could easily lose sight of the main objective and get caught in a war of narratives, which can quickly snowball into a war. Neither country wants this, nor can afford it. Pakistan’s economy has been in a ramshackle state for many years and it is in the middle of an IMF assistance programme to mend it. India, on the other hand, is experiencing reasonably good economic growth but has economic challenges ahead like job creation, boosting private investment and dealing with Trump’s tariffs. We need to make that our top priority and not dissipate our time and energies in a futile conflict.
I think that our main objective ought to be to strike at Pakistan’s terror network and dismantle as much of it as possible, since Pakistan has refused to do so for decades. I think it’s important to be super-focused on this, and not make it an issue of Kashmir. Unfortunately, since the latest attack took place in Pahalgam, ordinary Kashmiris have been in the firing line and one feels sorry for the loss of lives and livelihoods as well as the disruption in education and daily business activity that they have had to endure.
But this kind of terror attack could have taken place anywhere – as indeed it has in Mumbai in July 2006 and on 26/11 2008 when 189 and 166 people were killed respectively and in Delhi on the Indian Parliament. These attacks were on India’s business and financial capital as well as the country’s political capital. Pakistan will always want to make it an issue of Kashmir as they have done for decades, but we must stay focused on our task: dismantling terror.
If our military efforts stay focused on this single objective, we must also find a diplomatic route to engage the Pakistani establishment on ending this conflict soon. I was wondering if recalling our most senior and experienced diplomats from retirement for this specific task and starting back-channel talks wouldn’t be a good idea. In this regard, it was good to see that the DGMOs of both India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire and to hold talks on the way forward. Hopefully the NSAs of both countries will also be in dialogue although establishing any sense of normalcy will take a long time.
At the moment, the Indus Water Treaty continues to be kept in abeyance and diplomatic relations are still frozen, as is travel and trade between India and Pakistan. I think in making anti-terrorism our main focus, the two countries ought to at least agree to a joint patrolling of the border with a view to prevent infiltration and terrorist activity. It is a tall ask of the Pakistan state, that is otherwise known to sponsor terror, especially through its military establishment and the ISI. But we ought to aim high: a joint effort in combating terrorism across the border. This would at least force the Pakistani establishment to be an active participant in combating terror networks and would be open to Indian supervision and scrutiny.
I don’t think suspending the Indus Water Treaty is a good idea, except as a short-term measure perhaps to force Pakistan to mend its ways. It would set a bad precedent in water-sharing treaties between countries that are often the lifeline of many economies that are predominantly agricultural and India must be mindful of the possible danger of China resorting to similar policies with river waters that we share, many of which originate from across the Himalayas.
I think both countries have an interest in ending the firing soon and in agreeing on ways to prevent terrorism together. India’s main interest would be to focus on the economy, negotiating trade talks with the US, and with firming up a China+1 strategy at least this time around. In this regard too, it is good to know that the US and China have made some progress in their trade talks in Switzerland, albeit for only 90 days, and one hopes that trade relations can be reset more permanently. India carrying on with firing and retaliating to Pakistan’s strikes would not only be a drain on our time and resources, it could slow and even derail our economic growth.
Prime Minister Modi addressed the nation with a short speech that spelled out our anti-terror policy from now on. This is good, but rather than leave it as a message which has always fallen on deaf ears inside Pakistan, making them act on it by being part of a joint anti-terror patrol along with us might be more effective. Equally important, I think it might be a good idea for India to impress upon the US administration the need for a joint anti-terror squad comprising US and Pakistan forces, since the US has been giving Pakistan billions of dollars as financial assistance for decades to help them control terrorist activity but there is little sign of any improvement on the ground. This, along with the India-Pakistan joint patrol, will force Pakistan to act on terror more effectively.
I also think that India being the bigger economy and larger power in the South Asia region, we ought to be equally focused on how countries can cooperate economically and make progress through the rest of this century. I have argued for greater engagement with our neighbouring countries, and even with countries in Central Asia. I am of the opinion that India must invest in securing its energy for the future, and investing in Central Asia in their oil and gas resources is one way to diversify our energy imports. In fact, investing in Central Asia could pave the way for a new energy pipeline to flow south into South Asia. Pakistan, if it mends its ways and controls terrorism, could be rewarded for its good behaviour by sharing in this energy supply, as in the Indus waters.
Time to move ahead, from war-war and jaw-jaw to joint action on terror across the LoC and economic cooperation in the distant future. Otherwise, this seems like just another phoney war! Meanwhile, can we also please catch the three suspects soon and bring them to book.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 