Ending the wars and bringing peace to both Ukraine and the Middle-East seems to have gathered momentum ever since the New Year began. Or, since Trump’s return to office for his second term. He campaigned for his election saying that he will stop the wars in a matter of days.
Unfortunately, it appears as though both conflicts are going to escalate. Not because the parties concerned don’t want peace, but because of the bizarre turn the wars might take as a result of Trump’s controversial policies and solutions.
On Ukraine, the US having a discussion directly with Russia, without the presence of Ukraine meant the peace negotiations started off on the wrong foot. It was going to be a disaster anyway. To make matters worse, the meeting between US President Trump, VP Vance and Ukraine’s Zelensky in Trump’s office was an actual disaster. The meeting looked like a set-up to me, meant to insult and humiliate Ukraine in front of the entire world.
I had written quite some time ago that if Trump returns to office and intervenes in the Ukraine-Russia war, he would coerce Zelensky into accepting all of Putin’s demands and sell Ukraine down the Dnieper. As it looks now, this is not far from what’s actually happening. Besides, the US now also wants a deal – a minerals deal – in the middle of peace negotiations between two other warring countries. In fact, Trump cutting back on aid to Ukraine as well as stopping US intelligence-sharing recently are all signs of him applying pressure on Ukraine to sign the peace – and minerals – deal. I didn’t anticipate the minerals deal, but I guess no one should be surprised at Trump as Shylock. On various occasions Trump has been quoted as saying that it was repayment for all the help US has provided Ukraine until now!
Meanwhile, the UK hosted a meeting of NATO countries mainly from Europe, to discuss the Ukraine conflict and they agreed to support Ukraine as well as increase their defence spending. There was another follow-up virtual summit planned for March 15, 2025, when I expected more specifics to emerge, but the countries seem to have merely reiterated their support for a one-month ceasefire, which came about in a second round of talks that took place between US and Ukraine this time, in Saudi Arabia. However, talks with Russia are proving to be more difficult, it appears. Besides, I don’t understand why Saudi Arabia has agreed to host these talks when it, along with other countries, ought to be focusing on resolving the Middle-East problem where it can play a much larger and more useful role.
Coming to the Middle-East conflict, international news media has almost stopped reporting on the progress of the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas as well as the status on the second phase of the ceasefire. I suppose the Ukraine conflict took precedence over everything else, given the drama that was being staged. Here, we have an escalation of the conflict and the end of the ceasefire – before it could be extended to April 15, 2025 – with Israel resuming air strikes against Gaza in which over 400 Gazans lost their lives a few days ago, most of them women and children. I had expected another circus to take place, what with Trump’s plan to send all the Gazans into neighbouring countries as refugees, while he “takes over Gaza” to turn it into a Middle-East Riviera, if you please! Countries are no more than real estate, in the Trumpian world view.
I am glad that so far, countries in the region have refused to take Gazans in as refugees and have pushed back against any such idea. I think they can play a more constructive role by actually discussing among themselves and coming up with their own plan for resolving the Palestinian issue, as I have been saying and writing for a while on my blog. And I think it is high time that peace talks are not just about the current conflict, but about the larger issue of a political settlement between Israel and the people of Palestine that has eluded the world. In this context, one must acknowledge the importance of the Abraham Accords that were signed in Trump’s previous term in office, but one must also state clearly that those negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia aimed at resuming business and trade ties between them, in the absence of any political settlement on the issue of Palestine.
There are a couple of problems with this. First, such an accord assumes that Saudi Arabia speaks for Palestine or for the entire Arab and non-Arab world. Second, it was perhaps naiveté or misplaced optimism to think that a business deal or arrangement would somehow preclude the need for a political solution, or that it would in fact, lead to one. To arrive at a political solution, the discussions that have to take place must be about the Palestinian people, their need for a state of their own, and the unlawful occupation of their land that Israel has engaged in for decades.
In all this flurry of activity over peace talks in both the wars, I don’t hear the voice of the United Nations anymore. I think that in both the conflicts, UN representatives ought to be part of the ceasefire negotiations, and once ceasefire has begun, it ought to be the UN monitoring it and there ought to be UN peacekeeping troops on the ground. Instead, there have been several instances of Israeli forces shelling and bombing UN shelters, aid agencies and refugee camps in Gaza.
If we carry on down this path, these wars don’t look like ending anytime soon. If we don’t think through peace plans that are being proposed and don’t put the finest and most experienced minds on the task, we run the risk of aggravating these conflicts and perhaps igniting new ones.
Already, in the past few days, the China-Taiwan conflict is being whispered once again in media. Some people prefer to spend time on warmongering it appears.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 