In one sense, that ought to be a damn good thing. Since it might mean that the end of hostilities and shelling is near. On the other hand, it could mean that the world has failed to come up with an effective diplomatic and political solution to end the war even as it tires of the mindless killing of ordinary people.
As we begin 2024, the Israel-Hamas war has already taken the lives of more than 23,000 Palestinians, with another 50,000-60,000 injured, in just three months. The scale and intensity of the killing and shelling of Gaza is so large that one wonders if this isn’t already genocidal. Besides the war crimes and the breaking of international humanitarian laws, as I wrote in my last article on the subject, there is Israel’s plan to finish off Hamas to consider. I think that in their single-minded obsession and pursuit of this objective, Israel is more likely to finish off all Palestinians, or at least all Gazans, before ever achieving their elimination of Hamas.
Is the elimination of Hamas even realistic? Can Hamas ever be finished and won’t another, even more militant, force take its place? Shouldn’t we expect that Palestinians will continue to demand their own state as doggedly as Israel has denied them this? And should we be surprised if this war and killing on this scale leads to further radicalization and militant extremism on the part of Palestinians and their Arab brethren? The world has stood by helplessly and watched for the past three months, the killing of innocent civilians; it is complicit in its silence and ought to expect worse reactions from Islamists in the future.
The UN call for a complete ceasefire went unheeded, with the US actually vetoing it in the Security Council. Like I wrote before, the US is Israel’s biggest ally and supporter and is actually fuelling the war with its military equipment, aid and technology. And both countries are not signatories to the International Criminal Court. As it is, even the four-day ceasefire which got extended by a few days was too good to be true. It allowed very little humanitarian aid to go through to Gaza and secured the release of some hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners. Israel vowed even then to resume fighting as they still had unfinished business.
Then there is the other war. The one between Ukraine and Russia that is older and has therefore receded into the background. But if you look at it, that war didn’t begin in 2022, but in 2014, when Russia attacked Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Which means in 2024, it will be ten years since that war began. Israel’s war is so much more intense and horrific that it has hogged all the media attention. The effects of a war dragging on indefinitely are there to tell. US senators and representatives can’t seem to decide on the next tranche of US $60 billion that is meant for Ukraine, though President Biden has been pushing for it. However, the US has just bypassed Congress and allowed millions worth military assistance to be made available to Israel. Not once, but twice in the month of December 2023, alone.
Meanwhile, the US continues to claim it is urging restraint on Israel’s shelling of Gaza. What use is urging restraint, when you are continuing to steadily supply Israel’s arsenal of weapons? This is tantamount to double-speak, as is always the case with the US, when it comes to Israel. And now that the country is in election season, expect more of this in the months to come. What is hard to understand is the US reluctance to pass the military aid package for Ukraine. Some other European countries too have been reluctant to supply more weapons to Ukraine, which is clearly weakening Ukraine’s hand in the conflict. Surely, these countries, including the US, know that by supporting Ukraine wholeheartedly from the start, and dithering now, they are almost handing over Ukraine to Russia on a platter.
It is already being reported that Russia has stepped up its shelling of cities in Ukraine and is causing heavy casualties and damage as well as gaining the upper hand in the war. European countries’ reluctance to contribute to Ukraine’s war effort is likely the result of weakening economic growth, as well as the economic pressure already from supporting large numbers of Ukrainian refugees. It is fair to say thar for all that, Ukraine’s application to join the EU is being fast-tracked despite challenges and opposition from some member countries. The country also changed its Christmas celebration to December in line with the Gregorian calendar that is observed in the West. These are but symbolic gestures that help to keep up the spirit and morale of a nation and its defence force that is mostly made up of volunteers, and are defending themselves and their country, backs to the wall.
Which is why when the US talks of Israel’s right to defend itself, it is laughable. Let’s see things in proper perspective, shall we? Ukraine is the country defending itself, with a small armed force and thousands of ordinary citizen volunteers. Gazans ought to have a right to defend themselves under the constant shelling and bombing of their towns and cities, by elite IDF commandos.
The two wars can’t be compared, but when you consider that in both cases, it is one country denying the right of another country or people to exist, it does raise moral and existential questions. Russia’s attack on Ukraine even back in 2014 was about refusing to recognise Ukraine’s right to exist as a separate country, which Putin continues to maintain to this day. Similarly, Israel has refused Palestinians the right to their own state and has continued to occupy Palestinian land in a creeping fashion for decades in violation of international laws. Both have troubled histories, but more war is not the way forward.
The international community led by the UN will have to find a new way forward. As I wrote earlier, both Arab and non-Arab countries in the region too need to devise a better plan to resolve this conflict. There are reports of Egypt and Qatar working on a peace plan, but it appears that this is once again about the release of hostages and exchange of prisoners. I think that such negotiations, while useful, miss the larger point: of a political settlement through a two-state solution. Middle east countries need to push harder to achieve this, and to support the PLA as well as a state for the Palestinian people. A better and more useful start, therefore, would be to try and get the various Palestinian factions to unite and prepare a concrete plan for their vision of a new Palestine state.
As the world gets more war-weary, only Israel and the US seem to be trigger-happy enough to continue with the relentless attacks on Gaza. This, when US is the country with leverage over Israel but is not using it judiciously. Let me say it again: the US could have stopped the Israel-Hamas war in the first month itself.
As the world gets more tired of both these wars, there is every risk of complete capitulation. In the case of Ukraine, of Russia gaining the upper hand and taking over Ukraine. And in the case of Gaza, of Israel razing it to the ground – which they are close to achieving – and of taking it over, as was feared by many strategic experts at the start of the war. That would be complete folly and would be to repeat the mistakes of the past. Then, there is Israel’s sinister plan of resettling Palestinians in the Sinai Peninsula, which was casually mentioned in TV news a couple of weeks into the war, and I was surprised to see that no media organization thought it serious enough to pursue. Allowing things to drift and take their own course, could also mean a country – Israel in this case – unilaterally deciding to resettle Palestinians somewhere else, so they can have all of Palestine to themselves. Just one niggling problem: that land belongs to Egypt. But no problem, the US will buy their agreement for millions of dollars in addition to what they already pay Egypt and Turkey every year, for maintaining the peace with Israel.
Clearly, the way forward is not to just let things take their own course, but to take a stand. To have dialogue and arrive at a negotiated political settlement. The cost of this war on ordinary people is reason enough to pursue peace; in today’s globalized world, the entire world is affected by war, especially when the world’s leading powers are involved in it.
The other development we can and should expect is ordinary people and citizens standing up and speaking for themselves. Being war-weary, they are already taking to the streets, and many more ought to come forward. Ordinary Israelis were terribly unhappy with Netanyahu’s government, and now they seem to be against his handling of the war with Gaza, but not for reasons the world might wish for. They continue to be most concerned with the release of their loved ones taken hostage.
Whatever the next few months of this new year bring, war-weariness and loss of appetite for it on the part of the masses will not be enough to end them. Because they never started them in the first place.
The animated owl gif that forms the featured image and title of the Owleye column is by animatedimages.org and I am thankful to them.
Peripatetic Perch 